A Study

First of all, I have to admit that I am a huge Miami Heat fan.  It is getting to the point that their wins and losses affect me emotionally.  The only other team that I feel this connected to is BYU.  If you are thinking to yourself, "wow that is pathetic," well then you are definitely not a sports fan and you don't get it.  You should stop reading now.  

Ok anybody left?  I'm just gonna assume that there is at least one person still reading this and continue.  As I have watched 5 games of the NBA finals so far I have been severely disappointed with the officiating.  In every single game I have felt that Dallas gets a call every time they are even bumped 30 feet from the hoop (Barea gets fouls when someone yells when he shoots), while Miami can't get a foul call after getting mauled under the basket.  During tonight's game Colin Cowherd, an ESPN sports radio host tweeted, "any loose ball whistle--foul on Miami--don't even need to wait for call."  I was happy to see this because I wasn't sure if it was just me being biased or if the officiating really was just bad.  After the game tonight I decided I needed to look at some numbers to see if there really was any difference and this is what I found...

In the regular season games against the Mavericks the Heat averaged 22 team fouls while Dallas had 23.  Pretty even.  In the Finals the Heat are averaging 22.8 team fouls to Dallas' 18.8.  So the number of fouls for the Heat has slightly increased while the Mavericks' significantly decreased.  Interesting.

Also, in the regular season games the Heat averaged 30 free throw attempts while the Mavs took 25.  In the Finals, the Heat are taking 23 free throws a game while the Mavs are shooting 27.4 free throws.  Again, Heat average is down significantly, while the Mavs are up slightly.  Very interesting.  

Also, Miami averaged 27.6 free throw attempts on the season and Dallas averaged 25.7 a game.  So in the Finals the Heat are shooting 3.6 less free throws per game while the Mavs are shooting 1.7 more free throws a game.  Again, we see a shift where the Heat are getting less and the Mavs are getting more.  Super interesting.  

Now an ignorant friend of mine repeated the very ignorant quote that I have heard from many ignorant people during these finals.  "The Heat aren't taking the ball to the hoop enough and that's why they aren't getting to the line."  Not so fast my friend!  The casual fan who has only watched the Heat play a few times this year might think that they take too many jump shots, but as an avid fan this whole year I can honestly say that their offense looks like it has all season.  Lots of perimeter shots along with inside scoring.  During the regular season the Heat averaged 33.3 points in the paint, during the Finals that average is up to 38 points a game.  Now everyone knows that defense during the regular season is almost non-existent, so one would expect that if a team is scoring more in the paint that means they are probably shooting more in the paint and that should lead to more fouls when the defense is stronger.  Well as we already pointed out, the Heat aren't shooting more free throws even though they are taking the ball to the basket more.  The "jump shooting argument" has completely no basis and is a terrible excuse as to why the Heat are not getting calls.  

Now the purpose of this blog isn't to change anyone's mind.  You can't prove anything with only stats.  The purpose of this was for me to investigate if I was just seeing something that wasn't there or if maybe, just maybe, the officiating has been in favor of the Mavs.  (It's also been an amazing way to blow off steam after a disappointing game.  If you ever don't get something you want just complain about how it wasn't fair, it works wonders trust me)

Do I think that the NBA and refs are conspiring to give Dallas a championship?  No.  That is ridiculous and I refuse to believe any conspiracy theories about professional sports.  That would shatter my universe.  I believe there are some reasons why these trends exist, but not to the extent that we have seen.  Dallas has enjoyed 3 games at home while Miami has only had 2.  I understand that a home court advantage exists and that a home team will enjoy a few questionable calls that will go in their favor.  In game 3 in Dallas, the Heat were called for 27 fouls while Dallas only had 13.  This was a game in which Miami scored almost half of their points in the paint.  How a team can score so much in the paint and only get 13 calls is unexplainable.  Home court advantage might explain small trends in favor of the Mavericks but not the trends that we have seen. 

I personally believe that the discrepancy in foul calls has to do with the players on each team.  The Heat are a much bigger and physical team than the Mavs.  The sad truth about officiating in the NBA is that the more physically dominating you are, the less foul calls you are going to get.  Refs will hold you to a higher standard.  If you don't believe me just ask Shaq.  The Mavericks are a much smaller team and fouls are much easier to see for them.  Just watch the next time Jose Barea gets bumped going to the hoop and goes flying as if he just got launched out of a cannon.  That same foul wouldn't even phase LeBron James.  Is it still a foul?  Of course it is, it is just harder to call for the bigger man.  Is it fair that the physically larger team isn't getting calls and the tiny midgets from Dallas are getting whistles anytime a finger is laid on them?  No.  Should the physically superior team be able to overcome this obstacle and still win the finals?  I sure hope so.  So far they have done it twice and I hope they can do it twice more.